Where are the hogs?

Last month I discussed the idea of hope. Hope that hog futures might continue to grind higher. Hope that demand for U.S. pork will continue to improve and hope that the inventory of pigs on the ground was being consistently overstated by the USDA. While the jury is still out regarding a shift upward in pork demand, it appears that my outlook for fewer hog numbers than expected is on the mark. The quarterly Hog and Pig Report issued Sept. 26 and showing pig inventory as of Sept. 1 indicated that kept for market hog inventory was up 1% from last year. The market hog weight break down showed pigs 180 pounds and over were up 5%, 120-179 pounds up 3% while the two ligher weight categories were down 1% and down 2% respectively. This gap in hog numbers was suspect when reported. My comments last month speculated that the USDA had likely been over-counting hogs, in some fashion. My discussion went into an analysis of hog weights and space in the system to justify my reasoning. I will say tha