“Shootin’ The Bull”End of Day Market Recapby Christopher Swift Live Cattle:3/5/2024 Live Cattle:FeederFeeder Cattle: How! How can you have elevated beef production with fewer cattle? Growing what we have bigger is the first step. Importing more and exporting less is another. The real reason I believe beef production could exceed last year is the combination of holding back fewer heifers, allowing for the dairy/beef cross to make more of an impact than previously believed. At one time, I believed that the dairy/beef cross would be of great benefit. As this became more written about in general publications, I pulled back a little on this as this is a small part of beef production that wants to get bigger. So, I may have jumped the gun a little on how much impact this would have. Then, fast forward to today, and the cow/calf operations still not holding back heifers at rates believed damning to beef production, it appears that the combination of the two factors will work towards an increase in beef production. In another 12 months, even if beef cattle producers do begin holding back heifers in a manner that does disrupt beef production, by that time, the dairy/beef cross will have gained more traction. After all is said and done, let's hope that the consumer is not impacted in a manner that curtails consumption. I believe that restaurants are already displaying trouble. Nashville is not huge, but we are growing and most likely don't have enough restaurant space at good ones. This has been evident for the past three years until recently. While the demand may return, but I am certain that restaurants here are not in nearly as much demand as just a short time ago. HoHogs sold off sharply after the first minute of higher trading and a new high from the contract low made the first of January. Then it was down hill. Traders were able to stop the selling towards the end, but seemingly it may only be a correction of the initial move down. I am gun shy, spooked, nervous, and quivering at the thought of recommending being short hogs again. However, the $15.36 move higher in the index and $15.45 move of June futures suggests no change in the basis spread and we know that basis will converge. Therefore, with a $21.00 plus negative basis spread, I can't help but continue to recommend locking in hog prices with a $20.00 plus premium and the summer months already above $100.00. CattlI recommend selling June hogs with a buy stop to exit only at $103.20. This is a sales solicitation. e:Corn: Bonds |
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