End of Day Market Recap
by Christopher Swift
3/16/2023
Live Cattle:
Were it not for about ten minutes of the trade that created some price range, it would have been a very lackluster day in live cattle trading. Confliction is rampant in markets and agenda’s. With an anticipation of the Fed staying the course, raising rates again this month, I anticipate some impact on the consumer. This leads to anticipation of further shifting in discretionary spending habits of the consumer that most likely will not be of benefit towards an increase in beef consumption or willingness to pay. With next week anticipated to provide more information on rates and any changes of the Fed’s agenda, traders may be a little hesitant to push prices one way or the other aggressively.
Feeder Cattle:
The start of the seasonal tendency was backwards for the first couple of days, but has since begun trading more in line with this tendency. While the tendency is for lower prices, I urge you to consider adjusting hedge positions in a manner that allows you to sit to fruition of marketing. This could be accomplished multiple ways while still offering downside price protection. If you need help, call us. We can put pencil to paper and show what can and can’t be done with any adjustment made. The significance of the past two week trading range leaves a lot room for error. I anticipate some marking of time until next week and we all get a better look at what the consumer is going to be faced with.
Lean Hogs:
I was dead wrong, hogs are not ready to move higher yet.
Corn:
There are small changes taking place in the spreads between old crop and new. Beans and wheat were the softest today with corn trying its best to keep from falling further. China’s purchases are helping keep corn buoyed at the moment. I anticipate the grains and oilseeds to continue to trade lower.
Energy:
Volatility remains high, but today’s price range narrowed considerably. Oil is in a bear market now. Downside objective is $55.00 per barrel. Today’s slightly higher trade is believed a correction of Wednesday’s abrupt sell off.
Bonds:
Conflicting signals are everywhere in the financial markets. This leads me to anticipate more volatility. Bonds set a new high from March 2 low. Bonds moving higher pushes rates lower, and lower rates suggests recession and a need to be stimulated. The Fed is anticipated to do just the opposite by increasing rates again.
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